Marine condemned, Bardella appointed?
The final blow has fallen: Marine Le Pen has been convicted in the European parliamentary assistants affair. The decision sent shockwaves through the Rassemblement National, which was officially united but unofficially embarrassed. Behind all the declarations of unity, Plan B is taking shape: Jordan Bardella, runner-up and shooting star, is preparing to take on the presidential mantle. His problem? His youth, whereas the French have already tasted this asset with Emmanuel Macron.
Wauquiez, Saint Pierre et Miquelon, and the race to the shallot
Laurent Wauquiez saw fit to mark his comeback with a shock proposal: turn Saint Pierre and Miquelon into a "hub of sovereignty" in the face of the "migratory and commercial peril from the American continent". The idea came out of nowhere, or from a little-known episode of House of Cards. At LR, some see it as strategic audacity, others as a populist headlong rush in his party race, and many as wrapped-up electoral desperation. One thing is certain: Laurent Wauquiez, to come out of the woodwork with such a measure, is taking a big gamble in view of such an announcement. The question is, will it do him a disservice or put him back at the center of the game?
Bayrou, Betharam and pensions: the triple ball and chain
François Bayrou is having a complicated spring. The Betharam affair is pursuing him like a cloud of smoke in a confessional. His credibility, already damaged, is melting like snow in the sun. And as if that weren't enough, here he is, entangled in a conclave on pensions where no one will dare to give President Macron any guarantees. On a subject like this, 2 years away from the Presidential elections, there seems to be nothing but political "moves" to be made. In any case, the stage is set for another round of censorship. But never mind, the former sage of the center continues to call for a "spirit of responsibility". We just don't know from whom, or for what.
PS Congress: the anti-Faure front rises up
At the Socialist Party, spring is a time of internal turmoil. Olivier Faure, contested but not defeated, is seeing the emergence of an anti-Faure front determined to regain control. The elephants are coming out of the savannah, and the young lions are getting restless, the question being which personality can be the link that will enable a new majority to be built... without a program, but with a lot of resentment. The congress promises to be a lively affair, with debates about the apparatus and nostalgia for a bygone era in the glory of Jean Jaurès. The PS, true to form: passionately divided, stubbornly alive.
Parliament: between legislative overload, methodological chaos, parliamentary recess and suspension of work
The National Assembly is jammed, giving public affairs professionals and administrators alike a headache. The bill on the end of life is advancing at a snail's pace, but it's dividing people. The "simplification" bill attempts to keep things simple... in a chaos of complex amendments. And Rachida Dati's audiovisual bill has unfortunately turned into a bad French TV series, with a director who can no longer control the script; it's as if the left wing wanted to set a trap for her before the campaign kicks off in Paris. As parliamentarians enjoy their Easter vacations in the rain, the question is whether the logjam created by the excessive number of bills will be resolved by an extraordinary session in July (or September). It's understandable that the Prime Minister wants to skip the summer to avoid the risk of censure, but it's also understandable that parliamentarians are "pushing" to make progress.
Between a President who is projected into the European sphere but who has ants in his legs on the national front, oppositions in permanent reconfiguration, and a Parliament in legislative overheat, French politics seems to be moving forward in a crab-like fashion. April was a month of artificial excitement and failed comebacks. But rest assured: in May, we may do as we please.