As summer approaches, the French political landscape is experiencing a moment of strategic flux. Internal balances are shifting, bills and proposals are coming thick and fast (Gremillet bill on energy, Duplomb on the future of farming, end of life, etc.), and major political figures are fine-tuning their positions for the upcoming elections. Without bursts or collapses, but with the muted tension of transition periods.
Iran conflict: presidential diplomacy in search of influence
At a time when tensions in the Middle East have risen sharply with the renewed violence between Israel and Iran, Emmanuel Macron has taken on the posture of mediator, trying to "get out of the game". By calling for de-escalation while reaffirming France's support for its allies, the head of state sought to position himself as a European leader capable of combining diplomatic firmness with a concern for regional stability. While the President's words were hailed for their consistency, they also revealed the limits of a weakened French influence on the international stage, and even more so in the Middle East. France, like Europe as a whole in this sequence, seemed to be undergoing rather than imposing its own tempo.
Majority under pressure, center recomposing?
Within the presidential bloc, the differences in line are now openly expressed. On the one hand, Gérald Darmanin embodies a security-conscious wing that is assertive and popular in certain regions; on the other, Élisabeth Borne maintains a moderate, social and institutionally loyal course. Gabriel Attal, with his programmatic ideas, is trying to regain the upper hand and shake up the future. This latent cleavage crystallizes questions about the future of the center, caught between the need for firmness and the need for inclusion. What is emerging is not so much a rupture as a permanent adjustment, the sign of a power that is seeking to remain central in a political chessboard that no longer really is.
RN: the winning machine... starting to jam?
Following Marine Le Pen's conviction in the European parliamentary assistants affair, the RN seems to be oscillating between cold fury and selective sorting of ambitions. Jordan Bardella is slowly but surely establishing himself as plan B turned plan A. As 2027 approaches, will the vision of plan A clash with plan B? Will the RN, by dint of trying to reassure everyone, run the risk of no longer looking like much of anything? Or will it enable it, as in 2017 with La République en Marche, to be a catch-all party that will enable it to win? Too pro-system for the ultras? too fuzzy for the moderates? Will the strong party in the ballot box manage to win by remaining moderate on ideas.
Retailleau, a structuring victory for the Right
Bruno Retailleau has won the showdown within the Republican party. In defeating Laurent Wauquiez, Retailleau's style is rigorous, sober and rooted in the right-wing principles, in keeping with the party's "honest people" campaign. This repositioning of the party, more senatorial than Elysian for the time being, nevertheless marks a return to a form of ideological clarity. It remains to be seen whether this line will resonate with a public that demands authenticity but is often suspicious of assertive conservatism. For LR, this is a strategic moment: to rebuild a readable offer without falling into the trap of identitarian withdrawal. Will Bruno Retailleau be able to broaden his palette and become more presidential?
PS: A tense congress with no synthesis
The Socialist Party's congress was held in a tense atmosphere. Far from unifying positions, the convention left the main question unanswered: what political line should the PS take in 2027? Between the heirs of the traditional left, the socio-ecolos and the advocates of a social-liberal aggiornamento, the strategic vagueness remains total. A synthesis still awaited, but increasingly uncertain.
Pensions : Bayrou in trouble after conclave failure
The famous "pensions conclave", intended as a forum for dialogue and rethinking, gave birth to a mouse. The social partners, scalded by the 2023 reform, were cautious, or even abstained from participating fully in the discussions. François Bayrou, the promoter of this format, which was supposed to renew the threads of social dialogue, found himself trapped by his own mechanism: neither clear arbitration nor structuring proposals. The Prime Minister thought he was relaunching the national debate, but what he really did was underline the extent of persistent mistrust. This enabled him to secure the support of the Socialist Party for the 2025 budget. For the 2026 budget, on the other hand, it will be something that may well lead to his downfall.
Is the threat of another dissolution a spectre or a strategy?
The rumor of a possible dissolution once again hangs over the Assembly. As tensions mount between relative majorities and intransigent oppositions, some at the top of the State are evoking this scenario as a means of political leverage. While the option seems unlikely in the short term before the summer, it is weighing on internal discussions and parliamentary posturing. More than a threat, it reveals the current institutional malaise: a Fifth Republic whose traditional mechanisms are working less and less well.